Ben Koshy Stat 468 Final Project
1 Project Information
1.1 Abstract
The modern day NFL offensive strategy has become increasingly passing prevalent. I believe that it would be worthwhile to investigate rushing success in the league to help teams make more informed decisions when it comes to orchestrating an offense that utilizes the run effectively. I have chosen to do this by utilizing the feature rich data available through the Big Data Bowl, which I then will work with to evaluate potential models to create and evaluate predictions. I will then create a Shiny App which allows team staff to evaluate run success based on factors of interest.
This can help a team understand how different features of specific game aspects can help assess the probability of success of a given run play.
1.2 Data Being Used
There is a variety of data that is being used from the Big Data Bowl :
“NFL Big Data Bowl 2025” (n.d.)
1.2.1 File descriptions
Game data: The games.csv contains the teams playing in each game. The key variable is gameId.
Play data: The plays.csv file contains play-level information from each game. The key variables are gameId and playId.
Player data: The players.csv file contains player-level information from players that participated in any of the tracking data files. The key variable is nflId.
Player play data: The player_play.csv file contains player-level stats for each game and play. The key variables are gameId, playId, and nflId.
Tracking data: Files tracking_week_[week].csv contain player tracking data from week number [week]. The key variables are gameId, playId, and nflId.
1.2.1.1 Game data
gameId: Game identifier, unique (numeric)season: Season of gameweek: Week of gamegameDate: Game Date (time, mm/dd/yyyy)gameTimeEastern: Start time of game (time, HH:MM:SS, EST)homeTeamAbbr: Home team three-letter code (text)visitorTeamAbbr: Visiting team three-letter code (text)homeFinalScore: The total amount of points scored by the home team in the game (numeric)visitorFinalScore: The total amount of points scored by the visiting team in the game (numeric)
1.2.1.2 Play data
gameId: Game identifier, unique (numeric)playId: Play identifier, not unique across games (numeric)playDescription: Description of play (text)quarter: Game quarter (numeric)down: Down (numeric)yardsToGo: Distance needed for a first down (numeric)possessionTeam: Team abbr of team on offense with possession of ball (text)defensiveTeam: Team abbr of team on defense (text)yardlineSide: 3-letter team code corresponding to line-of-scrimmage (text)yardlineNumber: Yard line at line-of-scrimmage (numeric)gameClock: Time on clock of play (MM:SS)preSnapHomeScore: Home score prior to the play (numeric)preSnapVisitorScore: Visiting team score prior to the play (numeric)playNullifiedByPenalty: Whether or not an accepted penalty on the play cancels the play outcome. Y stands for yes and N stands for no. (text)absoluteYardlineNumber: Distance from end zone for possession team (numeric)preSnapHomeTeamWinProbability: The win probability of the home team before the play (numeric)preSnapVisitorTeamWinProbability: The win probability of the visiting team before the play (numeric)expectedPoints: Expected points on this play (numeric)offenseFormation: Formation used by possession team (text)receiverAlignment: Enumerated as 0x0, 1x0, 1x1, 2x0, 2x1, 2x2, 3x0, 3x1, 3x2 (text)playClockAtSnap: What the play clock value was at time of snap (numeric)passResult: Dropback outcome of the play (C: Complete pass,I: Incomplete pass,S: Quarterback sack,IN: Intercepted pass,R: Scramble, text)passLength: The distance beyond the LOS that the ball traveled not including yards into the endzone. If thrown behind LOS, the value is negative. (numeric)targetX: The x-coordinate of the targeted receiver when the pass arrived (numeric)targetY: The y-coordinate of the targeted receiver when the pass arrived (numeric)playAction: Boolean indicating whether there was play-action on the play (Boolean)dropbackType: The type of drop back after the snap by the QB (Traditional, Designed Rollout, Scramble, Scramble Rollout, Designed Rollout Left, Designed Rollout Right, Scramble Rollout Left, Scramble Rollout Right, Designed Run, QB Draw, Rollout, text)dropbackDistance: The distance the QB dropped back (yards) behind the center after the snap (numeric)passLocationType: The location type of where the QB was at the time of throw (Inside Tackle Box, Outside Left, Outside Right, Unknown, text)timeToThrow: The time (secs) elapsed between snap and pass (numeric)timeInTackleBox: The amount of time the QB spent inside the tackle box (numeric)timeToSack: The time from snap to the time the QB was sacked (numeric)passTippedAtLine: Boolean indicating whether the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage (Boolean)unblockedPressure: Boolean indicating whether there was pressure from an unblocked player (Boolean)qbSpike: Boolean indicating whether the play was a QB Spike (Boolean)qbKneel: Whether or not the play was a QB Kneel (numeric)qbSneak: Whether or not the play was a QB Sneak (numeric)rushLocationType: The direction the runner ran based on where the offensive linemen were during the play (Inside left, Inside right, Outside left, Outside right, Unknown, text)penaltyYards: yards gained by offense by penalty (numeric)prePenaltyYardsGained: Net yards gained by the offense, before penalty yardage (numeric)yardsGained: Net yards gained by the offense, including penalty yardage (numeric)homeTeamWinProbabilityAdded: Win probability delta for home team (numeric)visitorTeamWinProbabilityAdded: Win probability delta for visitor team (numeric)expectedPointsAdded: Expected points added on this play (numeric)isDropback: Boolean indicating whether the QB dropped back, meaning the play resulted in a pass, sack, or scramble (Boolean)pff_runConceptPrimary: The primary run concept on the play (text)pff_runConceptSecondary: The secondary run concept on the play (text)pff_runPassOption: Whether or not the play was a run-pass option (numeric)pff_passCoverage: The pass coverage concept employed by the defense on the play (text)pff_manZone: Whether the defense employed man or zone coverage on the play (text)
1.2.1.3 Player Play data
gameId: Game identifier, unique (numeric)playId: Play identifier, not unique across games (numeric)nflId: Player identification number, unique across players (numeric)teamAbbr: The team abbreviation for the team the player plays for (text)hadRushAttempt: Whether or not the player had a rushing attempt on this play (numeric)rushingYards: The rush yards accrued by the player on this play (numeric)hadDropback: Whether or not the player dropped back on this play (numeric)passingYards: The pass yards accrued by the player on this play (numeric)sackYardsOffense: The yards lost by the player via a sack on this play (numeric)hadPassReception: Whether or not the player caught a pass on this play (numeric)receivingYards: The receiving yards accrued by the player on this play (numeric)wasTargettedReceiver: Whether or not the player was the intended receiver on this play (numeric)yardageGainedAfterTheCatch: The yards gained after the catch was made by the player on this play (numeric)fumbles: The number of fumbles by the player on this play (numeric)fumbleLost: Whether or not the player lost a fumble to the opposing team on this play (numeric)fumbleOutOfBounds: Whether or not the player fumbled the ball out of bounds on this play (numeric)assistedTackle: Whether or not the player required an assist to make a tackle on this play (numeric)forcedFumbleAsDefense: Whether or not the player forced a fumble by the opposing team on this play (numeric)halfSackYardsAsDefense: The yards conceded by the offense because of a half-sack by the player on this play (numeric)passDefensed: Whether or not a passing play was stopped by the player on this play (numeric)quarterbackHit: Whether or not the player recorded a QB hit on this play (numeric)sackYardsAsDefense: The yards conceded by the offense because of a sack by the player on this play (numeric)safetyAsDefense: Whether or not the player forced a safety on this play (numeric)soloTackle: Whether or not the player recorded a solo tackle on this play (numeric)tackleAssist: Whether or not the player was awarded an assisted tackle on this play (numeric)tackleForALoss: Whether or not the player recorded a tackle behind the line of scrimmage on this play (numeric)tackleForALossYardage: The yards conceded by the offense because of a tackle behind the line of scrimmage by the player on this play (numeric)hadInterception: Whether or not the player intercepted a pass on this play (numeric)interceptionYards: The yards returned by the player on an intercepted pass on this play (numeric)fumbleRecoveries: The number of fumbles recovered by the player on this play (numeric)fumbleRecoveryYards: The yards returned by the player on a fumble recovery on this play (numeric)wasInitialPassRusher: Whether or not the player was the initial pass rusher on this play (numeric)penaltyNames: The names of all the penalties that were called on this player on this play (text)causedPressure: Boolean indicating whether the player pressured the QB, defined as achieving a peak pressure probability greater than or equal to 0.75 over the course of a dropback (Boolean)timeToPressureAsPassRusher: The time elapsed from snap to the first instance of this player reaching a pressure probability greater than or equal to 0.75 (numeric)getOffAsPassRusher: The time it took for this player to cross the line of scrimmage as a pass rusher after the ball was snapped (numeric)inMotionAtBallSnap: Boolean indicating whether the player was in motion at snap; Rule: If a player is moving faster than 0.62 y/s in the window 0.4 seconds prior to the ball snap, and has moved at least 1.2 yards in that window. (Boolean)shiftSinceLineset: Boolean indicating whether the player shifted since the lineset; Rule: Each player has their own lineset moment, and whether they shift is based on if they move more than 2.5 yards from where they were at their lineset moment. (Boolean)motionSinceLineset: Boolean indicating whether the player went in motion after they were initially set at the line on this play (Boolean)wasRunningRoute: Boolean indicating if the player was running a route on this play (Boolean)routeRan: The name of the route ran by the player on this play (text)blockedPlayerNFLId1: The NFL player ID of the primary opponent being blocked by the player on this play (numeric)blockedPlayerNFLId2: The NFL player ID of the secondary opponent being blocked by the player on this play (numeric)blockedPlayerNFLId3: The NFL player ID of the tertiary opponent being blocked by the player on this play (numeric)pressureAllowedAsBlocker: Whether or not any of any of the pass rushers that the blocker had a true matchup against recorded a pressure on this play (numeric)timeToPressureAllowedAsBlocker: The time elapsed from snap to the first instance of a pass rusher who the blocker had a true matchup against achieving a pressure probability above 0.75 on this play (numeric)pff_defensiveCoverageAssignment: The specific defensive coverage assignment given to the player on this play (text)
Possible values:
MAN: Man
2R: Deep Half Right
2L: Deep Half Left
3R: Deep Third Right
3M: Deep Third Middle
3L: Deep Third Left
4OR: Quarters Outside Right
4OL: Quarters Outside Left
4IR: Quarters Inside Right
4IL: Quarters Inside Left
FR: Flat Zone Right
FL: Flat Zone Left
HCR: Hook/Curl Right
HCL: Hook/Curl Left
CFR: Curl/Flat Right
CFL: Curl/Flat Left
HOL: Hole
DF: Deep Free
PRE: Prevent
pff_primaryDefensiveCoverageMatchupNflId: The NFL player ID of the opponent tagged as the primary matchup in coverage for the defender on this play (numeric)pff_secondaryDefensiveCoverageMatchupNflId: The NFL player ID of the opponent tagged as the secondary matchup in coverage for the defender on this play (numeric)
1.2.1.4 Player data
nflId: Player identification number, unique across players (numeric)height: Player height (text)weight: Player weight (numeric)birthDate: Date of birth (YYYY-MM-DD)collegeName: Player college (text)position: Official player position (text)displayName: Player name (text)
1.2.1.5 Tracking data
Files tracking_week_[week].csv contains player tracking data from week [week].
gameId: Game identifier, unique (numeric)playId: Play identifier, not unique across games (numeric)nflId: Player identification number, unique across players. When value is NA, row corresponds to ball. (numeric)frameType: Whether frame was before, during or after snap. (text)displayName: Player name (text)frameId: Frame identifier for each play, starting at 1 (numeric)time: Time stamp of play (time, yyyy-mm-dd, hh:mm:ss)jerseyNumber: Jersey number of player (numeric)club: Team abbrevation of corresponding player (text)playDirection: Direction that the offense is moving (left or right)x: Player position along the long axis of the field, 0 - 120 yards. See Figure 1 below. (numeric)y: Player position along the short axis of the field, 0 - 53.3 yards. See Figure 1 below. (numeric)s: Speed in yards/second (numeric)a: Acceleration in yards/second^2 (numeric)dis: Distance traveled from prior time point, in yards (numeric)o: Player orientation (deg), 0 - 360 degrees (numeric)dir: Angle of player motion (deg), 0 - 360 degrees (numeric)event: Tagged play details, including moment of ball snap, pass release, pass catch, tackle, etc (text)
1.3 Technical Contributions
Though a lot of prior work was already done, there were contributions made. First was the custom data engineering and pipeline. Integrating and cleaning four complex NFL datasets (player tracking, plays, player_play, games) to create a unified, analysis-ready database for rush plays. Another was automated feature engineering: e.g., construction of categorical variables, dynamic filtering by position/player, and contextual play metrics (e.g., success by down/yards-to-go).
1.4 Constraints
There are a few constraints to keep in mind for this project:
Data Completeness: The analysis relies on the provided player tracking, play, and game data. Any missing, incomplete, or inconsistent records could influence results.
- In this chain of thought, the data is from the 2021 season, so we can’t account for changing trends in past few seasons.
Feature Availability: Only features/variables present in the original datasets (e.g., player position, formation, run concept, play context) can be used for modeling and analysis.
Time Frame: The dataset is limited to the seasons, weeks, and games made available, which may not capture temporal changes, rare play types, or recent trends.
Project Timeline Limitation: Due to the limited time frame not as much analysis could be done. An interesting aspect to investigate would have been offensive and defensive skill levels as different teams have varying run defense quality (AKA any team playing Lamar Jackson).
1.5 Prior Work
There has been a substantial amount of work done using the NFL Big Data Bowl data set. A study by Stat CMU “Sacks Big Data Bowl Workshop” (n.d.) had a very good study of sack analysis. Vanderbilt had an excellent study of tackling predictions. Another interesting study was of defender movement analysis “Every Step You Take: Measuring A Defender’s Moves” (n.d.) done by Hassaan Inayatali from the University of Toronto. There is so much more work that has been done as well by other participants in the competition.